Doncic, Edwards, ???: We ranked the top 12 players from the NBA's conference finals (2024)

Neil PaineJun 4, 2024, 07:10 AM ET
Close
Follow on X

The NBA Finals are set to tip off between the Boston Celtics and the Dallas Mavericks on Thursday at 8:30 p.m. ET (watch all games on ABC), and that means the on-court stars will be out for the sport's biggest series. But which stars have shone brightest in the playoffs so far?

To help answer that question, let's once again turn to the numbers. Like we did after the first and second rounds of the 2024 NBA playoffs, we're ranking the players who were active in the most recent conference finals round, based on their statistical value added in the entire playoffs to date. We'll be using a mixture of different advanced metrics, blending together estimated RAPTOR, box plus/minus (BPM), win shares and player efficiency rating (PER) into a single measure of consensus wins, with each component getting equal weight. We'll also adjust for the number of games each player's team played, so stars from the Celtics don't get penalized because they swept their way into the Finals.

As always, this ranking is purely based on our composite of different stats in playoff games only. But it provides a nice perspective on which players the metrics show are steering their teams deep into the playoffs -- superstars such as Boston's Jayson Tatum and Dallas' Luka Dončić, for instance -- and players, such as Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton and Minnesota's Anthony Edwards, who put up valiant efforts for squads that just fell short.

Here are the 12 most valuable players of the first three rounds, among players whose teams went to the conference finals:

1. Luka Dončić, PG, Dallas Mavericks

Any notions of a sluggish postseason for Dončić were erased with a masterful performance against the Timberwolves in the Western Conference finals. As Dallas advanced past Minnesota, Dončić averaged 32.4 points (with a 62.7 true shooting percentage), 9.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists and 2.2 steals. His 36-point, 10-rebound double-double propelled the Mavs in the series-clinching Game 5, but Dončić also hit crucial shots in the final minute of both Games 1 and 2 to stake Dallas to a 2-0 series lead. Dončić has improved his shooting numbers with each successive series of the playoffs -- he was up to 47.3% from the floor, 43.4% from 3 and 84.6% from the line in the conference finals -- and he seems to be hampered less now by the ankle and knee injuries that have plagued him throughout the postseason. Dončić leads all players this postseason in points (489), rebounds (164) and assists (150); according to ESPN Stats & Information, he is the first player to enter the Finals leading the NBA in all three categories.

What's next? Dončić's next assignment will be a date with Jaylen Brown, who spent most of the teams' two previous matchups in the regular season checking him. While Dončić was held to 5-for-17 shooting on 3-pointers and posted a minus-33 plus/minus across those two contests, he also averaged a triple-double -- 35.0 points, 15.0 rebounds, 12.0 assists -- and will be a threat to put up big numbers again after nearly doing the same against a Minnesota team that had ranked No. 1 on defense during the regular season. (Boston was No. 3, if you're curious.) The days of Dončić barely scraping past 40% shooting, as he did in Round 1 versus the LA Clippers, or averaging under 25 points, as he did against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Round 2, seem like ancient history.

2. Anthony Edwards, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves

Though the Mavericks beat Edwards' Timberwolves for the West crown, Minnesota's top star had a lot to be proud of from this postseason. He followed up an ascendant regular season (which saw him finish seventh in MVP voting) with even better numbers in the playoffs; Edwards' play was also far and away the biggest reason the Wolves toppled the defending champion Denver Nuggets in Round 2. Even versus Dallas -- whose defense Edwards often struggled against, with both his scoring volume and efficiency down as compared to his averages from earlier in the playoffs -- he still averaged nearly 25 points, 9 rebounds and 8 assists, and had his best statistical performance of the series in the final game despite the home loss.

What's next? With most of its contributors slated to return, Minnesota will be one of the favorites to win it all next season, and Edwards will be a good bet to receive strong MVP consideration. The big things to watch with his game in 2024-25 will be whether his improved postseason 3-point shooting (40.0% versus 35.7% in the regular season) and overall scoring efficiency (59.8% true shooting versus 57.5%) will carry over across a full schedule, and whether he can map out a better game plan for when a team like the Mavs takes away his driving slashes to the basket.

3. Jayson Tatum, PF, Boston Celtics

Tatum continued proving his doubters wrong in the Eastern Conference finals. Against the Pacers, he scored 30.3 points per game -- the most he'd ever averaged in a series win during his postseason career -- while boosting his shooting percentages from the floor and increasing his assists to boot. If there was a knock on Tatum, it's that his series averages masked an uneven performance; he was great in Games 1 and 3 versus Indiana (36.0 PPG, 60.9 TS%, 11.0 RPG), less so in Games 2 and 4 (24.5 PPG, 43.5 TS%, 9.5 RPG). But Tatum remains the most versatile star still active in the playoffs, as well as the player on whom Boston's championship hopes rest the most.

What's next? In addition to greater consistency -- that up-and-down production, which helped yield the third-slimmest margin in a conference finals sweep during the 16-team bracket era for Boston, probably won't cut it in the Finals -- Tatum must shoot the ball better from beyond the arc. While his 30.6% accuracy against Indiana was his highest in any series so far, Tatum is still running 18% below league average in the playoffs, which isn't great for a player who takes nearly 37% of his shots from deep. Tatum's ability to improve in those areas against P.J. Washington, who figures to match up with him (and has been one of Dallas' key post-trade-deadline X factors) could be the battle of the series.

Doncic, Edwards, ???: We ranked the top 12 players from the NBA's conference finals (5)

Why Stephen A. believes Jayson Tatum has the most to lose in NBA Finals

Stephen A. Smith explains why Jayson Tatum must show up in the NBA Finals for the Celtics vs. the Mavericks.

4. Derrick White, SG, Boston Celtics

The metrics continue to adore White, who kept doing his all-around mix of winning "little things" as the Celtics swept Indiana. That included averaging 16.8 points (on 57.9% true shooting), 6.5 assists, 4.8 rebounds, 2.3 blocks -- we seldom appreciate just how much of a shot-blocker White is for a guard -- and 2.0 steals per contest. But it also encompassed White's ever-impressive plus/minus impact: Boston was plus-32 with White on the court for 39 minutes per game during the East finals, but it was minus-5 when White wasn't in the game. And of course, White was also there to hit the winning 3-pointer and provide the winning margin in Boston's Game 4 win, punching the team's ticket to the Finals.

What's next? A likely clash with Dallas guard Kyrie Irving will be the ultimate test of White's game at both ends of the floor. The Mavs were one of the worst matchups for White during the regular season; he averaged 9.5 points against Dallas on 41.5% true shooting, with 5.5 rebounds and 4.5 assists, as Irving averaged 21.0 points in those games. But White has a knack for making his presence count even when his contributions appear modest in the scoresheet, and the season series with Dallas was no exception -- the Celtics still won White's minutes in those games by plus-7.2 points per 100 possessions.

5. Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Indiana Pacers

The Eastern Conference finals will always be a what-if for Haliburton and the Pacers, as a hamstring injury sidelined Indiana's top star for the final two games of what had otherwise been an incredible season for both player and team. Given that Indiana lost both games at home by a combined margin of just six points, one has to wonder whether a healthy Haliburton would have made the difference between getting swept and forcing Boston to fight harder for its spot in the Finals. Still, Haliburton built on his All-NBA regular season with strong numbers in the postseason; he and Denver's Nikola Jokić were the only qualified players to post an offensive rating of 125, a usage rate of 20% and an assist rate of 30%. As a team, Indiana also ended up with an offensive rating (120.1) tied with Boston for the best of the playoffs -- and therefore tied for the sixth best in a single postseason.

What's next? Heading into the first season of a five-year extension with Indiana and still just 24 years old, Haliburton's next task is to continue finding ways to improve. He was an MVP candidate early in the season but tailed off some after New Year's Day -- a split probably exacerbated by the league's midseason shift in officiating emphases -- and his shortcomings as a defender were magnified at times in the playoffs. If he figures out how to mitigate those, Haliburton will continue his meteoric ascent.

6. Jaylen Brown, SF, Boston Celtics

As explosive as Tatum was in leading Boston in scoring during the series against Indiana, Brown (at 29.8 PPG) wasn't far behind his teammate -- and he was more consistent while shooting better, too. Brown also offered one of the most indelible moments of the playoffs thus far when he hit an improbable tying 3 to force overtime in Game 1, helping set an early tone for a series in which Brown and the Celtics did everything they needed late to win.

The advanced stats are often split on exactly how good Brown is -- while he ranked 25th in my Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement during the regular season, he was outside the top 50 in both win shares and value over replacement player, underscoring how difficult his game is to condense into its numerical essence. But with much-improved numbers this postseason (as compared with 2023), Brown has proven essential to Boston's Finals run.

What's next? As mentioned earlier, Brown is going to spend a lot of time with Dončić over the next few weeks. He was Boston's most common defender assigned to the Mavs' top star in each of their regular-season meetings -- and he did a decent job, all things considered, even though Luka got his numbers overall. (Dončić shot 4-for-10 when Brown was directly guarding him in those games.) The great news for the Celtics is that Brown also put up plenty of his own numbers in those games. His 29.5 points per game against the Mavs ranked fourth most against any opponent this season, and he did it on a very solid 63.6% true shooting mark.

7. Kyrie Irving, SG, Dallas Mavericks

After shockingly being held below 16.0 points per game in the second round against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Irving bounced back to pour in 27.0 points per contest on the Timberwolves, with three different outings of 30 or more points -- and 36 in the series finale, on 14-for-27 shooting from the field. For anyone who might have doubted the efficacy of the Irving-Dončić pairing, the two combined to score 297 points in the five-game victory over Minnesota, making up 53.3% of Dallas' total scoring as a team. Now in his fourth NBA Finals appearance, Irving is looking to improve on a career scoring average (27.7 PPG) that ranks 12th among all players with at least 130 career points in the Finals.

What's next? The most daunting matchup awaiting Irving in the Finals might just be his battle against angry Celtics fans who haven't forgotten how he left Boston in summer 2019. But he also has some work cut out for him on the court. Against the Celtics during the regular season, Irving's 21.0 points per game were fifth fewest versus any opponent head-to-head, a number that he'll probably need to improve on in the Finals for the Mavs to pull the upset. While Irving might not be able to neutralize White's all-around contributions at both ends, it would go a long way if he racked up big margins over him on the scoring ledger.

Doncic, Edwards, ???: We ranked the top 12 players from the NBA's conference finals (10)

Kyrie: Past actions in Boston not a 'reflection of who I am'

Mavericks star Kyrie Irving reflects on his experience playing in Boston ahead of a showdown with the Celtics in the NBA Finals.

8. Jrue Holiday, PG, Boston Celtics

Holiday's place in Boston's ensemble of contributors is more toward the "Derrick White Little-Things All-Stars" than the high-scoring Tatum-Brown pairing, but that doesn't make him any less critical to the Celtics' chances.

Holiday has played the second-most minutes of any Boston player this postseason (531), while ranking second on the team in assist rate (17.0%), fifth in offensive rating (127) and tied for first -- with Tatum and Al Horford -- in defensive RAPTOR (plus-2.1). As part of the latter, he also leads the team in steal rate (1.8%), typified by his win-clinching steal at the end of Game 3 of the conference finals. But make no mistake, when the team needs him to score, Holiday can do that, too: Witness the 28 points he dropped on Indiana in Game 1.

What's next? One of the most important -- and the toughest -- jobs facing any player in these Finals will be Holiday's role as a defensive chess piece that coach Joe Mazzulla can deploy situationally against the biggest threats Dallas poses. During the teams' second matchup of the regular season, Holiday's effort was split almost evenly between guarding Irving and Dončić, while he was used primarily on Irving in the first matchup. No matter how the duties are divided up between Holiday and White (and Brown), the Celtics' rugged defensive backcourt will have its hands full with the Mavs' potent offensive duo. But for his part, Holiday produced solid numbers across the board (14.0 PPG, 73.7% true shooting percentage, 6.5 APG, 4.5 RPG, +23.0 net rating/100) in the season series, so Boston knows what it will be getting in that regard.

9. Pascal Siakam, PF, Indiana Pacers

Though it wasn't enough to keep Indiana from getting swept, "Spicy P" carried most of his playoff momentum over to the conference finals. He scored 20 or more points in three of the series' four games, averaging a team-best 23.3 overall, and recorded a pair of double-doubles. His on-court impact was muted as the series went on; the team was plus-10 when Siakam wasn't on the court in Games 2 through 4, but was minus-32 with him in the game. Splits like that can happen, however, and it didn't erase the Pacers' plus-3.4 net rating with Siakam on the court throughout the entire playoffs.

What's next? Siakam is an unrestricted free agent this summer, and bringing him back will be the Pacers' top offseason priority. Presumably, Indiana didn't trade numerous players and picks to Toronto just to watch Siakam leave town, so it would be a surprise if he departed. Between Siakam and Haliburton, the Pacers have a very strong duo of offensive cornerstones; the team's ability to take the next step depends on what it can do to upgrade a defense that ranked 24th in efficiency during the regular season. Siakam (minus-1.0 defensive RAPTOR post-trade) was part of that problem, though he had a history of better defensive metrics earlier in his career.

10. Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves

After what many were calling a legacy-defining series victory in Round 2 against Jokić and the Nuggets, Towns' performance took a step back in the West finals. The headline averages -- 19.6 points and 8.4 rebounds -- remained, but Towns did almost all of his damage once the Wolves were already in a huge hole. (Both of his games with more than 16 points came in the series' final two contests, with Minnesota already facing elimination.) Compared with the Denver series, Towns' shooting percentage from the floor dipped from 51.0% to 37.9% -- at one point, he was 15-for-54 (27.8%) in the series -- while his plus/minus fell from plus-5.1 per game to minus-5.8. But despite the uneven output in the loss, Towns' playoff-wide numbers were still impressive; he was one of seven players to average 19 points and 9 rebounds this postseason.

What's next? Towns still has at least three more seasons left on his contract in Minnesota, so he will be a big part of whatever the Timberwolves do next as they build on the many successful aspects of this breakout campaign. But figuring out how to prevent ice-cold streaks like the one he had to start the West finals should be at the top of Towns' summer to-do list. "I'm putting up to 1,500 shots a day," Towns said when he was mired in the slump. "Shot so well all playoffs, confidence extremely high. To be having these unfortunate bounces and these looks that are just not going in, it's tough. It's tough, for sure. I'm good confidence-wise. Just got to keep shooting."

11. Al Horford, C, Boston Celtics

It's easy to overlook Horford's importance for the Celtics, seeing as the 38-year-old averages under 10 points per game and will be bumped out of the starting lineup as soon as Kristaps Porziņģis is healthy enough to return to action. But the 16-year veteran has logged more than 30 minutes per game in the playoffs in Porziņģis' absence, and he had his best statistical series since the 2022 postseason in the East finals. With 12.8 points per game, he was one of five Celtics averaging double figures; he also tied for second on the team in rebounding with 7.3 per contest. Horford's combination of defense, rebounding and efficient offense has led to Boston's net rating being a team-high 12.9 points per 100 higher with Horford in the game than when he sits.

What's next? Horford is another of Mazzulla's defensive chess pieces whose deployment will be key to Boston's efforts to slow down Dallas at that end. In addition to the perimeter production of Dončić and Irving, the Mavs love tossing lob passes to hyper-efficient bigs such as Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively II. How much Horford can help Boston disrupt that tactic -- while not giving away too many shooting opportunities in drop coverage -- could be one of the series' biggest X's-and-O's matchups.

12. Rudy Gobert, C, Minnesota Timberwolves

Against Dallas, Gobert was nowhere near the factor he had been in the previous round versus Denver. While his scoring was slightly up, his rebounding was way down (from 10.8 to 7.6 rebounds per game), as were his blocks (from 1.3 to 0.8). More importantly, the Wolves' scoring margin went from being 14.7 points per game better with Gobert on the court than off to 0.6 worse, as he was unable to help Minnesota slow down the Mavs' offense. (As an extreme encapsulation of this, see when he was switched onto Dončić before his winning shot at the end of Game 2.) Regardless how the playoffs ended for him, though, the postseason-wide metrics still appreciated Gobert's overall defense, offensive efficiency and rebounding.

What's next? Gobert has an opt-out potentially coming up relatively soon, but he is still under contract to Minnesota next season. Given he just won another Defensive Player of the Year award (the fourth of his career) and led the Timberwolves to the league's No. 1 regular-season defense, Gobert is core to Minnesota's plans of building off this year's success. Still, we just saw how easily matching up with a team such as Dallas could downgrade the defensive impact of even one of the greatest rim-protecting bigs in NBA history.

Honorable mention: Dereck Lively II (0.086 wins/game); Mike Conley (0.083); Jaden McDaniels (0.080); Andrew Nembhard (0.079)